Proceedings of the International scientific and practical conference ―Research Horizons in the Modern World‖ (March 27-29, 2026) / Publisher website: www.naukainfo.com. – Warsaw, Poland, 2026. - 135 p.
22 transport infrastructure were fractured. This episode offers a vivid real-world validation of Maslow's foundational insight — no amount of technology or capital can substitute for the physical availability of food. Methodology. The research draws on an integrated methodological framework combining qualitative and quantitative approaches: secondary data analysis using open-source intelligence (OSINT) derived from reports by international bodies (FAO, WFP, IFPRI, IPC, UNCTAD), outputs from policy research institutions (CFR, IFPRI), and commodity price data (Argus, Kpler, IMF Portwatch); content analysis of media coverage and expert commentary from 2025–2026; comparative case studies; supply chain mapping; and scenario-based modelling utilizing food security indices (IPC, WFP Global Hunger Index). The study is grounded in open-source information available as of March 2026, with potential data gaps addressed through cross- verification across independent sources. Globalization as a Source of Systemic Fragility. Although globalization broadens access to food supplies and agricultural inputs, it simultaneously creates critical vulnerabilities by concentrating global trade flows through a limited number of strategic chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz exemplifies this dynamic: roughly 27% of global oil shipments, 20% of liquefied natural gas, and between one-fifth and nearly one-third of worldwide fertilizer trade — spanning urea, ammonia, phosphates, and sulfur — pass through this narrow waterway. When armed conflict involving Iran erupted on 28 February 2026, transit volumes through the strait collapsed by over 70%, crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel, and fertilizer exports from Gulf producers — responsible for around 20% of global output and 46% of urea supply — faced acute disruption. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO) alone accounts for 14% of the global urea market, and analysts at Kpler and Bank of America estimated that a sustained blockade could disrupt up to a third of all fertilizer trade and threaten supplies of 65–70% of the world's urea; monthly fertilizer transit through the strait amounts to 1.33 million tonnes [2, 3, 9]. Production Consequences of Supply Chain Disruption. The breakdown in logistics translated directly into curtailed output among major regional producers.
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