Proceedings of the International scientific and practical conference ―Research Horizons in the Modern World‖ (March 27-29, 2026) / Publisher website: www.naukainfo.com. – Warsaw, Poland, 2026. - 135 p.

24 planting season, with forecasts pointing to yield reductions of 10–30% for rice, wheat, soybeans, and corn in the near term. The escalation of food production costs stems partly from the fact that energy and fertilizers collectively account for 30–50% of total agricultural expenses. In developing countries, food and fuel together constitute 30–50% of the consumer price basket, compared with under 25% in advanced economies. The ripple effects of soaring natural gas prices are equally consequential: in the United Kingdom, the National Farmers' Union formally warned of unavoidable price rises for greenhouse produce within six weeks and for field crops within three months, prompting the government to convene an emergency COBRA meeting. American farmers are grappling with historically elevated fertilizer costs against a backdrop of narrow profit margins — a situation rendered more precarious by the absence of any strategic fertilizer reserve [6-10]. Consumer Basket Composition as a Measure of Asymmetric Impact. The differentiated impact of the crisis is starkly visible in the varying structure of consumer price baskets across economies. In developed nations, the combined weight of food and energy in the CPI rarely exceeds one quarter of the total: in the United Kingdom, food and non-alcoholic beverages represent 9.0% of the basket and energy approximately 6–7%; in the United States, the equivalent figures are 13–14% and 6.3%. As a result, higher fertilizer and freight costs exert only a moderate upward pressure on headline inflation. In contrast, across the Middle East, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, food and fuel together account for 30–50% of consumer spending: in India, food and beverages represent 36.75% of the price index; across much of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, the share reaches 40–55%; and in Sudan, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Somalia the food component alone exceeds 45–50%, with fuel adding a further 10–15 percentage points. In these contexts, a surge in urea prices (40–60%), natural gas, and transport fuel feeds directly into severe food inflation and a sharp erosion of household purchasing power. This structural asymmetry explains why the Global South faces the prospect of an additional 45 million people sliding into acute hunger, whereas wealthier nations experience only a modest uptick in retail prices [6, 9, 10].